Analysis and prediction of the national energy sit

Analysis and prediction of the national energy situation in the first quarter of 2017

Abstract: the development of new energy is accelerating, and wind power will go south is a foregone conclusion. In 2017, the development of new energy will still maintain a good momentum. According to the industry survey results, China's photovoltaic supply chain is full of confidence in the market in 2017, and the photovoltaic growth in 2017 is expected to be 19%. In 2017, low wind speed areas will be the main battlefield for China's onshore wind power development

in the first quarter of 2017, China's national economy continued the development trend of steady progress and steady improvement since the second half of last year, positive changes continued to increase, and a number of economic indicators significantly warmed up. The situation of the energy industry is as follows:

in terms of energy demand

coal consumption in the power, chemical and steel industries increased positively. In the first quarter, the total electricity consumption of the whole society in China was 1446.1 billion kwh, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year

with the continuous upgrading of industrial transformation and the rapid development of alternative energy, the growth rate of domestic oil demand will continue to slow down. In the first quarter, the consumption of refined oil was 73.39 million tons, an increase of 6.5%, of which gasoline and diesel increased by 9.0% and 3.3% respectively. Natural gas consumption was 63.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.6%

energy investment

in the first quarter, the national development and Reform Commission approved 15 projects in the field of energy, with a total investment of 73.9 billion yuan. The investment in clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 68.7% of the investment in power supply

scale of energy construction

from January to February 2017, the capacity (AC) of substation equipment of 220 kV and above was 31.09 million KVA, an increase of 11.26 million KVA over the same period last year

energy supply situation

the growth rate of raw coal production in industries above designated size has changed from negative to positive, the decline in crude oil production has narrowed, crude oil processing capacity has increased steadily, natural gas production has increased rapidly, and the growth rate of power generation has accelerated

in the first quarter, the national total power generation was 1458.72 billion kwh, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Thermal power generation increased by 7.4% year-on-year. The decline in hydropower has narrowed. Nuclear, wind and solar power generation maintained double-digit growth

overall situation of national macroeconomic and energy development in the first quarter

1. Overall situation of macroeconomic

economic growth stabilized. In the first quarter of 2017, China's national economy continued the development trend of steady progress and steady improvement since the second half of last year, positive changes continued to increase, and a number of economic indicators significantly warmed up

in the first quarter of 2017, the GDP was 18068.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% at comparable prices. The support of the secondary industry has been enhanced. Data show that in the first quarter, the added value of the primary industry was 865.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year; The added value of the secondary industry was 7000.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 10202.4 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7%. Among them, the contribution rate of the secondary industry to GDP growth is 36.1%

the fundamental role of consumption is enhanced. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 8582.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year

industrial data is outstanding. In the first quarter, industrial data showed outstanding performance, and the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.8% year-on-year. The profits of industrial enterprises have recovered. From January to February, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 1015.68 billion yuan, an increase of 31.5% year-on-year

the manufacturing industry is stable and improving. The manufacturing industry continues to maintain a steady and positive trend. In March, the PMI (purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry) was 51.8%, higher than the boom and bust line for eight consecutive months, hitting a new high in the same period since 2013. Meanwhile, it rose for two consecutive months, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month

the price is generally stable. Prices rose moderately in the first quarter, and inflationary pressure will not rise significantly. CPI (national consumer price) rose by 1.4% year-on-year, and core CPI rose by 2.0%. The rise of PPI (Industrial producer price index) slowed down. In the first quarter, PPI rose 7.4% year-on-year, and the increase continued to expand for five months

2. Overall situation of energy development

energy demand. The coal consumption of national commodity coal showed a year-on-year growth momentum in the first quarter. In terms of industries, coal consumption in the power, chemical and steel industries increased positively, while coal consumption in the building materials industry increased negatively

driven by industrial power consumption, the growth rate of power consumption stabilized and rebounded. In the first quarter, the total electricity consumption of the whole country was 1446.1 billion kwh, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. The national industrial power consumption was 982.1 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, accounting for 67.9% of the total social power consumption, and contributing 74.8% to the growth of the total social power consumption. Among them, the power consumption of light industry was 159.3 billion kwh, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year; The power consumption of heavy industry was 822.9 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%

oil demand continues to slow down, and the degree of external dependence is steadily rising. In 2017, with the continuous upgrading of industrial transformation and the rapid development of alternative energy, the growth rate of domestic oil demand will continue to slow down. A beautiful, waterproof, heat preservation and heat insulation lamp has become the common requirement of every family. In the quarter, the consumption of refined oil was 73.39 million tons, an increase of 6.5%, of which gasoline and diesel increased by 9.0% and 3.3% respectively. Affected by the air pollution control policy, the consumption of urban gas has increased, but due to the warm winter, the consumption of natural gas has increased slightly. In the first quarter, natural gas consumption was 63.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.6%

energy investment level. In the first quarter, the national development and Reform Commission approved 15 projects in the field of energy, with a total investment of 73.9 billion yuan. In the first quarter, the added value of mining industry above designated size decreased by 2.4% year-on-year. Among them, the fixed asset investment of the national mining industry was 109.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%

from the perspective of sub industries: the investment in coal mining and washing industry was 25.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%; The investment in oil and gas exploitation industry was 30.4 billion yuan, an increase of 26.5% year on year; The investment in ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 10.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%; The investment in nonferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry was 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; The investment in non-metallic mining and beneficiation industry was 25.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. In the first quarter, the investment in clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power and wind power accounted for 68.7% of the investment in power supply

energy construction scale. From January to February 2017, the capacity (AC) of substation equipment of 220 kV and above increased by 31.09 million KVA, an increase of 1126 over the same period last year, showing its comprehensive solution capacity of medical devices of 10000 KVA; The length of new 220 kV and above lines is 3239 kilometers, an increase of 542 kilometers over the same period last year. In terms of power supply, 16.14 million kw of new power generation equipment capacity was added from January to February 2017, 6.14 million KW less than the same period last year

energy supply situation. The growth rate of raw coal production in industries above designated size has changed from negative to positive, the decline in crude oil production has narrowed, crude oil processing capacity has increased steadily, natural gas production has increased rapidly, and the growth rate of power generation has accelerated. In the first quarter, the raw coal output was 810 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Crude oil output was 4018800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; Crude oil processing volume was 38.2161 million tons, an increase of 4.54%, and the output of refined oil was 86.35 million tons, an increase of 9.2%; Natural gas output was 38.74 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year; Shale gas production was 2.67 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the national total power generation was 1458.72 billion kwh, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. Thermal power generation increased by 7.4% year-on-year. The decline in hydropower has narrowed. Nuclear, wind and solar power generation maintained double-digit growth

analysis of the national energy situation in the second and first quarter

1. The energy supply has increased steadily

the coal supply has increased slightly. In March 2017, the raw coal output was 300 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.9% from negative to positive. In the first quarter, the cumulative output of raw coal was 810 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%; The net import of coal was 62.258 million tons, an increase of 16.581 million tons year-on-year. From January to February, coal inventories of coal enterprises, important power plants and ports fell compared with the end of 2016

coal production and net import in February and March

coal inventory from January to February

the growth rate of power generation increased year on year. In March, the power generation was 516.89 billion kwh, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year; In the first quarter, the power generation was 1458.72 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, significantly accelerating. The growth rate of thermal power has accelerated, and the decline of hydropower has narrowed. In March, thermal power generation increased by 7.7% year-on-year; Affected by water inflow, hydropower generation decreased by 1.3% year-on-year. In the first quarter, thermal power increased by 7.4% year-on-year, while hydropower decreased by 4.1% year-on-year. Nuclear, wind and solar power generation maintained double-digit growth. In the first quarter, nuclear power, wind power and solar power increased by 16.3%, 21.8% and 31.0% year-on-year respectively. By the end of March, the installed capacity of power plants of 6000 kW and above in China was 1.61 billion kw, an increase of 7.7% year-on-year. Among them, 290million kW of hydropower, 1.06 billion kw of thermal power, 34.73 million kw of nuclear power, and 150million kW of wind power

proportion of installed capacity of sub power supply

in the first quarter, the power generation capacity of power plants above Designated Size nationwide was 1458.7 billion kwh, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year

proportion of power generation from sub sources

in the first quarter, hydropower generation from power plants above Designated Size nationwide was 193.8 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%. The top three provinces in terms of hydropower generation in China are Sichuan (55.3 billion KWH), Yunnan (41.4 billion KWH) and Hubei (21.6 billion KWH). Their total hydropower generation accounts for 61.0% of the national hydropower generation, with year-on-year growth of 7.8%, 21.8% and -6.1% respectively

in the first quarter, the thermal power generation capacity of power plants above Designated Size nationwide was 1135.7 billion kwh, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year. In terms of provinces, except Beijing (-9.4%), Hainan (-2.9%), Henan (-2.4%) and Shanghai (-0.4%), the thermal power generation capacity of other provinces has achieved positive growth. Among them, the provinces with a growth rate of more than 20% are Qinghai (37.2%), Tibet (35.3%), Hunan (33.4%), Guangxi (29.1%), Guangdong (22.2%), and the provinces with a growth rate of more than 10% are Fujian (16.9%), Jiangxi (16.0%), Guizhou (11.9%), Ningxia (10.6%) Sichuan (10.5%), Shandong (10.3%)

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the distribution map of provinces with rapid growth of thermal power generation

in the first quarter, the national nuclear power generation was 54.8 billion kwh, an increase of 16.3% year-on-year. The generating capacity of wind power plants of 6000 kW and above nationwide was 70.3 billion kwh, an increase of 25.2% year-on-year

crude oil production decreased and processing volume increased steadily. In the first quarter, crude oil output was 48.018 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Crude oil processing volume was 138.216 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. Among the main refined oil products, the output of gasoline, kerosene and diesel increased by 3.6%, 9.4% and 3.2% year-on-year respectively. The operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units in refineries remained at a high level, but continued to decline slightly, with the main refineries at about 78% and local refineries in Shandong at about 56%

growth rate of gasoline, kerosene and diesel output

natural gas production accelerated, and the growth rate of import volume decreased. In the first quarter, natural gas production was 38.74 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year. Among unconventional natural gas, shale gas production has increased rapidly. In the first quarter, shale gas production was 2.67 billion cubic meters, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year. The rapid growth of shale gas production is mainly due to the continuous production of projects in Sichuan Changning Weiyuan national shale gas industry demonstration zone. Natural gas imports continued to increase, and the growth rate fell sharply year-on-year. In the first quarter, natural gas imports reached 20.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. In addition, due to the year-on-year rebound in international oil prices, the appreciation of the US dollar and other factors, the import price of natural gas increased slightly by 3% year-on-year

2. The overall decline in energy investment

coal investment decreased significantly. In the first quarter, the national fixed asset investment in coal mining and washing industry was 25.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points from the previous month

the fixed asset investment in oil and gas exploitation industry increased year on year. From January to February, the investment in fixed assets of the oil and gas exploration industry totaled 12.032 billion yuan, an increase of 95.3% year-on-year, since 2016